Ravens Dominate Jets 23-10 as Computer Models Predict Cover Against 13.5-Point Spread
Nov, 24 2025
The Baltimore Ravens didn’t just beat the New York Jets—they buried them. On Sunday, November 23, 2025, at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, the Ravens cruised to a 23-10 victory over a depleted, disoriented Jets team, silencing doubters and reinforcing their playoff credentials. What made it more striking? The Ravens were heavy 13.5-point favorites—and they covered with room to spare. Even the most optimistic computer models, which had the Ravens winning by an average of 17.2 points across 10,000 simulations, didn’t fully capture how lopsided this game felt.
Why the Ravens Were Built for This Moment
It wasn’t just Lamar Jackson’s poise under center—it was the entire machine clicking. The Lamar Jackson who took snaps on Sunday had cleared his ankle injury concerns, per Ryan Mink of the Ravens’ official site. He didn’t need to carry the load. Instead, he handed off to Derrick Henry, who turned 21 carries into 64 yards and two touchdowns, adding two receptions for 24 more. Henry, 30, is playing like he’s got a second wind. His presence alone forced the Jets’ defense into impossible choices: stack the box and get burned by Jackson’s play-action, or drop back and let Henry grind out yards between the tackles.Defensively, the Ravens were surgical. They held the Jets to 10 points—their third straight game allowing under 17. Over their last five contests, Baltimore has given up just 14.8 points per game, including wins against top-10 scoring teams like the Browns and Bengals. Roquan Smith, back from his hamstring scare, led the charge with 11 tackles and a forced fumble. The Jets? They had no answer.
The Jets’ Quarterback Carousel Keeps Spinning
After a brutal 27-14 loss to the Patriots on Thursday, November 15, the Jets were already reeling. Then came the announcement: Taylor was replacing Justin Fields as the starter. No explanation. No transition. Just a midweek shakeup that left the offense scrambling. Taylor, a journeyman with 11 career NFL starts, completed 16 of 28 passes for 143 yards and one interception. He looked lost in the pocket, constantly under pressure from a Ravens front seven that generated four sacks and nine hits on the QB.And here’s the kicker: the Jets had a mini-bye after Thursday’s game. They were supposed to be rested. But according to CBS Sports, the Jets are now 3-11-1 against the spread over their last 15 games when they’ve had a rest advantage. That’s not bad luck. That’s a systemic failure. Their offense ranks dead last in passing yards. Their defense is 25th in points allowed. They’re not just losing—they’re losing in ways that make you wonder if they’ve given up.
Computer Models Were Right—And Underestimated
Before kickoff, CBS Sports’ computer model predicted the Ravens would cover the -13.5 spread in over 50% of simulations. SportsLine went further: over 80% of their simulations hit the Over (44.5). The final score? 23-10. Total points: 33. The Under won. But the Ravens still covered by 10 points. The model didn’t miss on the outcome—it just didn’t account for how completely Baltimore would dominate time of possession (38:12) and limit the Jets to just 242 total yards.What’s more telling? The moneyline movement. The Ravens opened at -1250, spiked to -1400, then settled at -1000. That’s a 40% drop in odds, signaling heavy public betting on Baltimore. And yet, the sharp money stayed on the Ravens all week. The 87.5% win probability from SportsBettingDime wasn’t hype—it was data.
What This Means for the Playoff Race
With the win, the Ravens improved to 6-5. They’re now tied for the final AFC Wild Card spot with the Steelers and Dolphins. Their next three games? Against the Bengals (10-1), Chargers (7-4), and Bengals again. Tough, but winnable. The defense is playing like a top-five unit. The running game is elite. And Jackson? He’s back to being the MVP-caliber quarterback he was in 2019.Meanwhile, the Jets fell to 2-9. They’re now officially out of playoff contention. Their offense has scored 17 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games. The only question left is: who’s next to lose their job? General manager Joe Douglas? Head coach Robert Saleh? Or Taylor, who might be the 10th different QB to start for them since 2020?
What’s Next?
For the Ravens, the focus shifts to Rashod Bateman. The wide receiver, out since Week 9 with a calf strain, is listed as “likely” to return in Week 13. His presence would give Jackson a true No. 1 target—something he’s lacked since Odell Beckham Jr. left. If Bateman returns healthy, Baltimore’s offense becomes even more dangerous.For the Jets? They’re playing for draft position. And the only thing worse than losing is losing with no plan. Their next two opponents? The Dolphins and Bills—both playoff-caliber teams. They’ll need a miracle. Or a new quarterback. Or both.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did the Ravens’ defense shut down the Jets’ offense so effectively?
The Ravens’ front seven, led by Roquan Smith and Jermaine Johnson, applied relentless pressure without blitzing. They forced Taylor into quick throws, limiting big plays. The Jets’ offensive line gave up four sacks and nine QB hits, and their receivers dropped three key passes. Baltimore’s secondary also played tight coverage, holding New York to just 5.1 yards per attempt.
Why did the Over miss despite computer models predicting it would hit?
While models predicted the Over in 70-80% of simulations, they assumed a more balanced offensive output. Instead, the Ravens controlled the clock (38+ minutes), ran the ball 42 times, and limited possessions. The Jets’ offense stalled early, and their only scoring drives came after Ravens turnovers. The final 33-point total was the lowest in the NFL this week.
Is Lamar Jackson fully healthy after his ankle injury?
Yes. According to Ravens’ official reporter Ryan Mink, Jackson had no injury designation for Week 12 and practiced fully all week. He didn’t look limited in motion or throwing, and his 7.3 yards per attempt suggests he’s back to peak form. The team is managing his workload, but there’s no indication of lingering issues.
What’s the significance of the Jets’ 3-11-1 ATS record with a rest advantage?
It’s a red flag for bettors. Teams with extra rest usually perform better—but the Jets have collapsed in this scenario for over a year. Their coaching staff struggles with game planning after bye weeks, and their players often look sluggish or unfocused. This isn’t an anomaly—it’s a pattern tied to organizational dysfunction.
Can the Ravens still make the playoffs with tough games ahead?
Absolutely. At 6-5, they’re tied for the final Wild Card spot. Their remaining schedule includes two games against the Bengals (one at home), a road game against the Chargers, and a finale against the Browns. With their defense playing at a Pro Bowl level and Derrick Henry healthy, they’re one of the most dangerous teams in the AFC. A 9-8 finish is very possible.
Will Rashod Bateman return in Week 13?
RotoWire’s November 21 injury report listed Bateman as “likely” to return after missing three games with a calf strain. If he plays, he’ll be the Ravens’ first true deep threat since 2023, opening up the offense for Jackson and Henry. His return could be the missing piece in Baltimore’s playoff push.